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Ireland Abortion Vote Predictions Off by 16 Points

From Ireland’s Abortion Vote Is a Historic Victory, Slate:

Last week, a supermajority of Irish citizens voted to repeal the Eighth Amendment of the country’s constitution, which effectively banned almost all abortions. Though polls predicted victory for women’s rights activists, the outcome still came as a shock to those who were too cautious to hope that the overwhelmingly Catholic country would join the rest of Europe in decriminalizing the procedure.

66 percent of voters who elected to legalize abortion

 

From Repeal the 8th: Five years on, The Left:

Opinion polls had predicted that it would be down to the wire, and that rural communities and older people would vote against legalising abortion.

When the votes were counted, five years ago today, 66.4% of the Irish public voted to repeal the 8th amendment to the Irish Constitution that conferred equal rights to a foetus and a pregnant woman.

Most polls significantly underestimated the outcome, with an average 24% lead of Yes vs No; some polls showed a difference of only 11% or 12%. The actual vote won 69% to 30%, a difference of almost 39 points.

 

 

Date
Fri, 05/25/2018 - 12:00
Difference
16.00
Link
Ireland’s Abortion Vote Is a Historic Victory. But It’s Not a Model for the U.S.
Repeal the 8th: Five years on
Opinion Polls, Ireland Abortion Amendment - Wikipedia
Place
Ireland

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